← 返回资讯屏轩教育 · 行业资讯

Brexit and UK Higher Education: What the New Research Shows | 脱欧对英国高等教育影响研究出炉：最新发现与解读

2026-10-15 13:15 · 本文部分内容由AI辅助创作

📚 Brexit and UK Higher Education: What the New Research Shows | 脱欧对英国高等教育影响研究出炉：最新发现与解读

A new wave of research from universities, sector bodies and independent think tanks has finally given us the first long-run, evidence-based picture of how Brexit has reshaped British higher education. Rather than relying on the dramatic predictions made during the 2016 referendum campaign, this research tracks what actually happened to student numbers, tuition fees, research funding, staff mobility and university finances across almost a decade. The findings are neither apocalyptic nor reassuring: they describe a sector that has been quietly, structurally and unevenly transformed.

来自大学、行业机构与独立智库的一批新研究，首次以长期、基于证据的方式呈现了脱欧如何重塑英国高等教育。这些研究不再依赖 2016 年公投期间那些戏剧化的预测，而是追踪了近十年间学生人数、学费、科研经费、教职流动与大学财务的真实变化。结论既不是"末日论"，也谈不上令人安心：它描述的是一所被静默地、结构性地、且不均衡地改造过的英国高教体系。

1. Why This Research Matters | 为何这项研究值得关注

The value of this research lies in its method. Earlier debates about Brexit and universities were dominated by forecast modelling and anecdote. The new studies combine administrative data from UCAS and HESA, visa records from the Home Office, funding figures from UKRI and the European Commission, and bibliometric analysis of millions of co-authored papers. This triangulation allows researchers to separate Brexit effects from other shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the cost-of-living crisis and demographic change in the domestic 18-year-old population.

这项研究的价值首先在于方法。早期关于脱欧与大学的讨论，多由预测模型和个案轶事主导。新研究则把 UCAS 与 HESA 的行政数据、内政部签证记录、UKRI 与欧盟委员会的经费数据，以及对数百万篇合著论文的文献计量分析结合起来。通过这种多源交叉验证，研究者可以把脱欧效应与新冠疫情、生活成本危机、英国本土 18 岁人口变化等其他冲击区分开来。

The headline lesson for A-Level students is methodological: correlation between Brexit and a decline in EU enrolment is not automatically causation, and strong answers must show awareness of competing explanations.

对 A-Level 学生而言，最核心的启示是方法论层面的：脱欧与 EU 招生下降之间存在相关关系，并不自动等于因果关系；高分答案必须体现对"竞争性解释"的敏感度。

2. The Policy Timeline: From Referendum to New Settlement | 政策时间线：从公投到新格局

Understanding the impact requires a clear chronology. Brexit did not happen on a single day for universities; it arrived as a sequence of decisions, each with its own consequences.

要理解影响，必须先理清时间线。对大学而言，脱欧并非某一天的事件，而是一连串决策陆续落地，每一项都带来各自后果。

Date 时间 Policy Event 政策事件 HE Impact 高教影响
2016-06 EU referendum 脱欧公投 Immediate uncertainty for EU staff and applicants 教职与申请者不确定感骤增
2020-01 UK formally leaves the EU 英国正式退出欧盟 End of free movement 自由流动终止
2020-12 Trade and Cooperation Agreement 贸易与合作协定 UK exits Erasmus+; Horizon terms left unresolved 退出 Erasmus+，科研框架悬而未决
2021-08 New fee status rules 新学费身份规则 EU students pay international fees across most of the UK 多数地区 EU 学生改付国际学费
2021-07 Graduate Route launched 毕业生签证推出 Two-year post-study work for most graduates 多数毕业生可留英两年
2023-09 Horizon Europe association agreed 达成 Horizon Europe 关联协议 UK researchers regain access from 2024 自 2024 年起恢复申请资格
2024-01 Dependant restrictions 家属限制 Taught master's students cannot bring dependants 授课型硕士不能携家属

The pattern is clear: Brexit for universities was a process of partial exit followed by partial re-engagement, leaving a hybrid settlement rather than a clean break.

规律很清楚：对大学来说，脱欧是"部分退出"之后又"部分重返"的过程，最终形成的是一种混合安排，而非干净利落的切割。

3. Tuition Fees and Student Finance | 学费与资助规则的变化

The single most consequential change for EU undergraduates was the loss of home fee status. Before 2021, an EU national studying in England paid the same tuition fee as a UK student and could access the same student loan system. From the 2021/22 academic year, new EU entrants were reclassified as international students, paying fees that at many institutions are two to three times higher, and losing eligibility for UK student finance.

对 EU 本科生影响最大的单项变化，是失去"本土学费身份"。2021 年之前，在英格兰就读的 EU 公民与英国学生缴同样学费，并可申请同样的学生贷款。自 2021/22 学年起，新入学的 EU 学生被重新归类为国际学生，在许多院校需缴纳高出两到三倍的学费，同时也失去英国学生资助资格。

This is best understood as a price shock rather than a demand shock. The research suggests that the sharp fall in EU applications was driven less by hostility towards the UK than by a straightforward change in the cost-benefit calculation facing an 18-year-old in, say, Poland or Portugal.

这更应被理解为一次"价格冲击"而非"需求冲击"。研究显示，EU 申请量骤降的原因，与其说是对英国抱有敌意，不如说是波兰、葡萄牙等地一名 18 岁学生所面对的成本收益计算发生了直接改变。

The analysis also reveals an important nuance: postgraduate and research-degree demand proved far more resilient than undergraduate demand, because those students weigh research quality, supervision and funding access more heavily than headline tuition price.

分析还揭示出一个重要细节：研究生与研究型学位需求的韧性远高于本科需求，因为这类学生更看重科研质量、导师水平与经费可及性，而非学费的标价。

4. The Applicant and Enrolment Data | 申请与入学数据说明了什么

The data story is one of sharp initial decline followed by partial stabilisation at a lower level. UCAS data for the first post-Brexit cycle showed EU applicant numbers falling by roughly two-fifths in a single year, which stands as one of the fastest contractions ever recorded in a major student market.

数据呈现的是"先急剧下降、后在低位部分企稳"的轨迹。UCAS 在脱欧后首个招生周期的数据显示，EU 申请人数在一年内下降约五分之二，这是主要生源市场中记录到的最快收缩之一。

HESA enrolment records confirm the same direction over subsequent years, with the largest proportional losses concentrated in certain institution types: post-1992 universities, lower-ranked institutions and those with a regional recruitment base rather than a global brand.

HESA 的入学记录证实此后数年沿同一方向变化，且损失比例最集中的是特定类型院校：1992 年后升格的大学、排名较低的院校，以及生源以区域市场为主而非拥有全球品牌的院校。

Crucially, the overall international student population did not collapse. Universities responded by pivoting aggressively towards non-EU markets, particularly China, India, Nigeria and Pakistan, so that total international numbers held up or even grew while the EU share fell sharply.

关键在于，国际学生总量并未崩塌。大学迅速转向非欧盟市场，尤其是中国、印度、尼日利亚和巴基斯坦，因此国际学生总数基本维持甚至增长，而 EU 占比则大幅下滑。

Change in EU enrolment = New EU entrants − Graduation − Non-completion − Emigration

This identity is worth memorising: a fall in new entrants takes several years to show up fully in total enrolment, which is why single-year figures can mislead.

这个恒等式值得记住：新生人数下降需要数年才会完全体现在在校总数上，这也是单一年度数据容易误导人的原因。

5. Mobility: Erasmus+ Out, Turing Scheme In | 流动计划：退出 Erasmus+，推出 Turing Scheme

The UK's departure from Erasmus+ was one of the most visible and most criticised elements of the Brexit settlement. The government replaced it with the Turing Scheme, launched in 2021, which funds UK students to study and work abroad on a global rather than European basis.

英国退出 Erasmus+ 是脱欧安排中最引人注目、也最受批评的部分之一。政府以 2021 年启动的 Turing Scheme 取而代之，资助英国学生赴海外学习与实习，覆盖范围面向全球而非仅限欧洲。

The research identifies three structural differences that matter. First, Turing does not fund inbound students, so the reciprocity that made Erasmus+ a two-way exchange has been lost. Second, it does not cover tuition fee waivers, so students on short placements may still face costs. Third, its budget has been characterised as representing a fraction of the value the UK previously received through Erasmus+ participation.

研究指出三个关键结构性差异。第一，Turing 不资助"入境"学生，Erasmus+ 那种双向互惠的交流机制因此消失。第二，它不涵盖学费减免，短期交换的学生仍可能承担费用。第三，其预算被认为仅为英国此前通过 Erasmus+ 所获价值的一小部分。

A notable constitutional wrinkle: Northern Ireland retained the ability to participate in Erasmus+ through a special arrangement, meaning students at Northern Irish institutions have access that their counterparts in England, Scotland and Wales largely do not.

一个值得注意的宪制细节是：北爱尔兰通过特别安排保留了参与 Erasmus+ 的资格，这意味着北爱院校的学生拥有英格兰、苏格兰和威尔士学生基本不具备的机会。

6. Research Funding and Horizon Europe | 科研经费与 Horizon Europe

For research-intensive universities, the most damaging period was not the exit itself but the gap that followed. Between 2021 and 2023, UK-based researchers could not apply as full participants to Horizon Europe, the EU's flagship research programme, creating what the literature calls a "lost cohort" of projects, consortia and early-career opportunities.

对研究密集型大学而言，最具破坏性的并非退出本身，而是随之而来的空档期。2021 至 2023 年间，英国研究人员无法以正式参与者身份申请欧盟旗舰科研计划 Horizon Europe，由此形成了文献中所称的"失落的一代"项目、联盟与青年学者机会。

The 2023 association agreement, effective from January 2024, restored access, and the research generally treats this as a significant mitigation. However, three caveats matter for exam answers. First, the UK does not participate in the European Innovation Council or in Erasmus+, so association is not full membership. Second, the UK makes a substantial financial contribution for access. Third, the three-year interruption has a persistent effect on network membership, because research consortia are built on long-standing personal relationships.

2023 年达成的关联协议自 2024 年 1 月起生效，恢复了申请资格，研究普遍将其视为重要的补救措施。但考试作答时需注意三点保留：其一，英国并未参与欧洲创新委员会，也未参与 Erasmus+，因此"关联"不等于"正式成员"；其二，英国为获得资格需支付可观经费；其三，三年的中断对科研网络成员身份具有持续影响，因为研究联盟建立在长期的人际关系之上。

7. Collaboration and Co-authorship Trends | 学术合作与合著趋势

进口原版 Mission 2000 WORDS 3级别 （学生书+迷你词汇手册+APP）挑战2000词 KET核心词汇教材 小学英语单词大全 剑桥雅思核心词汇 蓝思值400L-500L
进口原版 Mission 2000 WORDS 3级别 （学生书+迷你词汇手册+APP）挑战2000词 KET核心词汇教材 小学英语单词大全 剑桥雅思核心词汇 蓝思值400L-500L
¥100.0
📱 去京东购买
京东精选

Bibliometric evidence provides some of the most rigorous findings in the new research. Analysis of millions of journal articles shows that the share of UK papers co-authored with EU-based researchers has declined relative to the share co-authored with researchers in the United States, China and Australia.

文献计量证据是新研究中最严谨的部分之一。对数百万篇期刊论文的分析显示，英国论文中与 EU 研究者合著的比例，相对于与美国、中国和澳大利亚研究者合著的比例，已经下降。

This matters because co-authored papers are typically cited more frequently, and international collaboration is strongly associated with higher research impact. A decline in EU linkages therefore represents a potential long-run productivity loss for the UK research base, even if total output has so far remained strong.

这一点很重要：合著论文通常被引更高，国际合作与研究影响力之间存在强相关。因此，即便英国科研总产出目前依然强劲，EU 联系减弱仍意味着潜在的长远科研生产率损失。

However, a strong evaluative answer must note the counter-argument: the decline is partly a substitution effect rather than a pure loss, since UK researchers have deepened links with non-EU partners. The net effect depends on whether new collaborations are as productive as the ones they replace.

不过，一份优秀的评价性答案必须指出反方论点：这一下降部分是"替代效应"而非纯粹损失，因为英国研究者加深了与非欧盟伙伴的联系。净效应取决于新合作是否与被替代的旧合作同样高效。

8. Staff, Visas and the Talent Pipeline | 教职、签证与人才管道

The end of free movement transformed the employment position of EU academics in the UK. Those already in post had to secure settled or pre-settled status, while new hires faced the full visa system, including salary thresholds and sponsorship costs borne by employers.

自由流动终止改变了 EU 学者在英国的就业处境。已在职者需取得定居或预定居身份，而新聘人员则须面对完整签证体系，包括薪资门槛与由雇主承担的担保成本。

The research identifies two opposing effects. On the one hand, administrative friction, cost and perceived unwelcomeness have discouraged some EU academics from applying. On the other, the Global Talent visa and the Graduate Route have created new pathways that are arguably more generous than the pre-Brexit default for non-EU talent.

研究识别出两种相反效应。一方面，行政摩擦、成本与"不受欢迎"的观感，使部分 EU 学者望而却步；另一方面，全球人才签证与毕业生签证开辟了新路径，对非欧盟人才而言，其条件甚至可能优于脱欧前的默认安排。

The net result reported in the literature is a compositional shift: the EU share of academic staff has fallen while the non-EU share has risen, with the sharpest concerns focused on early-career researchers who are most mobile and least attached to a particular institution.

文献报告的净结果是"结构性变化"：学术人员中 EU 占比下降，非 EU 占比上升；最令人担忧的则是早期职业研究者，因为他们流动性最强、对特定机构的依附最弱。

9. University Finances and Business Models | 大学财务与商业模式

Perhaps the most consequential finding is financial rather than demographic. Losing EU students meant losing a cohort that paid fees but did not require the same level of marketing investment as distant overseas markets, and who were more likely to stay in the UK after graduation.

或许最具影响的发现是财务层面而非人口层面。失去 EU 学生，意味着失去一批愿意缴费、却不像远距离海外市场那样需要高额招生营销投入、且毕业后更倾向留在英国的学生群体。

The sector's response has been a deepening reliance on a small number of non-EU recruitment markets. This concentration creates financial fragility: a single change in a source country's policy, currency or visa environment can now threaten the budgets of individual institutions.

行业的应对是加深对少数非欧盟招生市场的依赖。这种集中度带来了财务脆弱性：生源国政策、汇率或签证环境的单一变化，如今就可能威胁到个别院校的预算。

income = Home fees + International fees + Research grants + Other income − Operating costs

Because international fees carry a much higher margin than home fees, small percentage shifts in international recruitment produce disproportionately large swings in surplus, which is why several institutions have announced restructuring.

由于国际学费的利润率远高于本土学费，国际招生百分之几的波动就会造成盈余的大幅摆动，这正是多所院校宣布重组的原因。

10. Devolution: Four Systems, Four Outcomes | 权力下放：四种体系，四种结果

A frequently overlooked dimension is that higher education is a devolved matter, so Brexit has produced four different outcomes within one state.

一个常被忽视的维度是：高等教育属于权力下放事务，因此脱欧在一个国家内部产生了四种不同结果。

Nation 地区 Post-Brexit Fee Position 脱欧后学费安排 Distinctive Feature 特点
England 英格兰 EU students pay international fees EU 学生付国际学费 Largest and most market-exposed system 规模最大、最受市场影响
Scotland 苏格兰 EU students moved to international fees EU 学生改付国际学费 Ended a long-standing free-tuition policy for EU students 终结了对 EU 学生的长期免学费政策
Wales 威尔士 EU students pay international fees EU 学生付国际学费 Fee rules aligned with England 学费规则与英格兰趋同
Northern Ireland 北爱尔兰 Special arrangements apply 存在特别安排 Retains Erasmus+ access 保留 Erasmus+ 参与权

This variation is useful evidence for the argument that Brexit's effects are mediated by domestic institutions rather than being uniform across the UK.

这种差异是有力证据，说明脱欧的影响会被各地区的本土制度所中介，而非在全国范围内均质施加。

11. Evaluating the Evidence: Skills for Exam Answers | 评估证据：应试答题技巧

To use this research effectively, you must do more than describe the findings. Strong answers evaluate the strength of the evidence and consider competing explanations.

要有效运用这些研究，不能只做描述，而要评估证据强度并考虑竞争性解释。