📚 Lifetime Earnings Returns to UK Undergraduate Degrees by Subject and Institution Type | 英国本科学位终身收入回报：按专业与院校类型分析
For most students in England, choosing a degree is the single largest financial decision they will make before the age of twenty. Tuition fees are capped at £9,535 per year from 2025/26, maintenance loans add tens of thousands more, and the repayment period now runs for forty years. Yet the return on that investment is not a single number - it varies enormously by what you study and where you study it. This article sets out what the evidence actually shows about lifetime earnings returns, how those returns differ by subject and by institution type, and how an A-level student or parent should read the statistics without being misled by averages.
对英格兰的大多数学生而言，选择大学专业是二十岁之前最大的一笔财务决策。2025/26 学年起学费上限为每年 9,535 英镑，生活费贷款再叠加数万英镑，而还款期限如今长达四十年。但这项投资的回报并非一个单一数字——它会因你学什么、在哪里学而出现巨大差异。本文将说明相关证据究竟显示了什么，终身收入回报如何因专业和院校类型而不同，以及 A-level 学生和家长应当如何解读这些统计数字，而不被平均数误导。
1. What the Lifetime Earnings Return Actually Measures | 终身收入回报究竟衡量什么
The return to a degree is a comparison, not an absolute figure. It is the difference between what a graduate actually earns over a working life and what the same person would plausibly have earned had they not gone to university. Reported "graduate earnings" figures, such as the median salary of graduates five years after leaving, describe an outcome; they do not by themselves describe a return.
学位回报是一种比较，而不是一个绝对数值。它是毕业生整个职业生涯实际所得，与同一个人假如没有上大学"本来可能"得到的收入之间的差额。媒体常报道的"毕业生收入"（例如毕业五年后的薪资中位数）描述的是一个结果，本身并不等同于回报。
Economists distinguish two further dimensions. The private return accrues to the individual, after income tax, National Insurance and student loan repayments have been deducted. The fiscal or exchequer return accrues to the taxpayer, through higher tax receipts and lower welfare spending. A degree can have a healthy private return and a weak fiscal return, or vice versa, depending on the tax system and the loan design.
经济学家还会区分两个维度。私人回报归个人所有，需扣除所得税、国民保险和学生贷款还款之后计算。财政回报归纳税人所有，通过更高的税收收入和更低的福利支出体现。一个学位可能私人回报良好而财政回报一般，反之亦然，这取决于税制和贷款设计。
Finally, a distinction is drawn between gross and net returns, and between cash sums and discounted present values. A headline figure of "£300,000 more over a lifetime" may be an undiscounted cash total, a discounted present value, or a figure after tax - and the three differ by a factor of two or more. Always ask which definition is being used.
最后还要区分"毛回报"与"净回报"，以及"现金总额"与"贴现现值"。一个"一生多赚 30 万英镑"的标题数字，可能是未贴现的现金总额、可能是贴现后的现值、也可能是税后数字——三者之间可能相差一倍以上。看到任何数字，先问它用的是哪种定义。
2. Method: Net Present Value, Discounting and the Counterfactual | 方法：净现值、贴现与反事实
The standard approach is to compute a net present value. Future earnings differences are discounted back to today, because money received in thirty years is worth less than money received now. Ignoring costs, the core expression is:
标准做法是计算净现值。未来的收入差额要贴现回今天，因为三十年后拿到的一笔钱，价值低于今天拿到同样数额。忽略成本因素，核心表达式为：
NPV = Σₜ₌₁⁴⁵ [ (Gₜ − Nₜ) ÷ (1 + r)ᵗ ] − C
Here Gₜ is the graduate's earnings in year t, Nₜ is the counterfactual earnings of the same person without the degree, r is the real discount rate, and C is the total cost of study, including tuition fees and forgone
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