英国城市毕业生留存率 伦敦曼彻斯特
选大学的时候，很多学生把注意力全放在排名上，很少去看这座城市能不能留住自己的毕业生。英国每年都会发布一组叫 Graduate Outcomes 的官方调查数据，毕业生留存率是城市排名里被引用最多、也最容易被误读的指标之一。这篇文章用 HESA、gov.uk 和 Centre for Cities 官网的公开数据，讲清留存率的统计口径、伦敦与曼彻斯特两种不同模式，以及城市排名里其他几个相关指标，最后给出选校时可以落地的判断方法。
When students compare universities, they usually look at rankings and ignore a quieter question: does the city actually keep its graduates? The UK publishes an annual official survey called Graduate Outcomes, and graduate retention is among its most quoted numbers. This article uses public data from HESA, gov.uk and the Centre for Cities website to explain what retention measures, how London and Manchester differ, and which other indicators sit inside city rankings.
一、留存率统计的是什么 / What Graduate Retention Measures
毕业生留存率通常指在某座城市读大学的学生，毕业之后仍然留在该城市工作的比例。分母是这座城市高校的毕业生，分子是留在本地就业的那部分人，所以它衡量的是城市对毕业生的吸纳能力，而不是大学的学术水平。英国现行口径来自 HESA 的 Graduate Outcomes 调查，调查节点是毕业 15 个月之后，比 2019 年以前使用的 6 个月口径晚得多，这段时间足够让一部分人先回家、再换城市。HESA 官网 2026 年 6 月 4 日发布的 2023/24 届数据显示，87% 的毕业生处于工作或继续深造状态，其中 57% 从事全职工作，7% 处于失业状态，全职工作者的薪资中位数为 30000 英镑。这些是全国口径的数字，具体到城市还要往下拆分。
Retention rates answer a narrow question: of the people who studied in a city, how many are still working there later? The denominator is that city's graduates and the numerator is those who stayed, so the figure describes a local labour market rather than a university. Current UK figures come from HESA's Graduate Outcomes survey, which follows graduates 15 months after they finish, replacing the six-month snapshot used before 2019. That extra time lets some graduates move home first and change city later. HESA published the 2023/24 results on 4 June 2026, showing 87 per cent in work or further study, 57 per cent in full-time jobs, 7 per cent unemployed, and a median salary of GBP 30,000 for full-time first-degree work. City-level figures require a further breakdown.
二、数据从哪来 / Where the Numbers Come From
官方数字来自三个不同层级，混用是绝大多数错误的源头。HESA 的 Graduate Outcomes 每年 6 月更新，提供全国与单校两个层面；gov.uk 的 Graduate labour market statistics 按毕业生类型拆分就业结构，2024 年的数据显示，英格兰毕业生的高技能就业率为 67.9%，研究生为 79.0%，非毕业生只有 23.7%，该页面于 2025 年 6 月 5 日发布；地方报告补上城市细节，曼彻斯特市议会 2021 年 11 月的经济审查报告引用 HESA 数据，指出在该市高校毕业的学生留在曼彻斯特就业的比例从 2017/18 学年的 20% 升到 2018/19 学年的 23%，把大曼彻斯特算进来则是 33% 升到 36%。三套口径分别回答是否留在城市、岗位技能层级、就业地区分布三个问题，放在一起直接比较会得出错误结论。
Official numbers arrive from three different levels, and mixing them causes most of the confusion. HESA updates Graduate Outcomes every June at both national and provider level. The gov.uk publication Graduate labour market statistics splits employment by graduate type: in 2024, 67.9 per cent of graduates in England held high-skilled jobs, against 79.0 per cent for postgraduates and 23.7 per cent for non-graduates, published on 5 June 2025. Local councils add city detail, and Manchester City Council's economy scrutiny report of November 2021, quoting HESA, recorded that the share of the city's graduates working in Manchester rose from 20 per cent in 2017/18 to 23 per cent in 2018/19, or from 33 to 36 per cent across Greater Manchester. One dataset tracks whether graduates stay, another tracks job skill level, a third tracks where people work.
三、伦敦与曼彻斯特的两种模式 / London and Manchester: Two Models
两座城市的差距比名声暗示的更大。Centre for Cities 官网 2019 年 3 月发布的研究显示，曼彻斯特高校的毕业生有 51.5% 留在本城工作，在各城市中仅次于伦敦，同一份研究给出的利兹留存率为 29%，利物浦为 31%。伦敦的优势集中在更高的技能层级：伦敦新增毕业生劳动力中，22% 持有罗素集团大学的一等或 2:1 学位，曼彻斯特为 16%；离开大学所在城市去别处工作的牛津剑桥毕业生中，52.5% 流向伦敦，流向曼彻斯特的只有 1.4%。这说明两座城市走的是不同路数，伦敦从全国抽取人才维持体量，曼彻斯特靠本地与西北地区的毕业生形成第二梯队，市议会的报告也提到部分三十岁以上的毕业生会迁往西北其他地区。
The gap between the two cities is wider than reputation suggests. Research published on the Centre for Cities website in March 2019 found that 51.5 per cent of Manchester's graduates stayed to work in the city, second only to London, with Leeds retaining 29 per cent and Liverpool 31 per cent. London's advantage sits higher up the skill scale: 22 per cent of its new graduate workforce held a First or 2:1 from a Russell Group university, against 16 per cent in Manchester, and among Oxbridge graduates who left their university city for work, 52.5 per cent moved to London while 1.4 per cent chose Manchester. The two cities therefore run different models, one pulling talent from across the country and the other building a second-tier graduate market from its own region.
四、常见的错误读法 / Common Misreadings
常见的错误是把留存率当成大学质量的替身，好像留存率高就说明教学好。Centre for Cities 2025 年 9 月的简报把这件事说得很直接：本地有大学并不能保证毕业生留在市中心，能不能留住人取决于高技能岗位、住房供应和城市配套。第二个误读是只盯着 15 个月的短窗口，很多学生以为毕业后第一份工作的城市就是终身选择，实际上这段时间只描述起点。第三个误读是默认留存率越低越差，毕业生回家乡或者流向伦敦，对个人未必是损失。第四个误读是把不同年份、不同口径的数字直接排序，例如拿 2019 年的留存率去比 2024 年的就业率，这种对比没有任何信息量。
A frequent mistake is treating retention as a proxy for teaching quality. A Centre for Cities briefing published in September 2025 says plainly that hosting a university does not guarantee graduates stay in the city centre, because keeping them depends on high-skilled jobs, housing supply and amenities. A second error reads the 15-month window as a life decision when it describes a starting point. A third assumes a low retention rate signals a weak city, even though graduates who return home or move to London may simply be following their own plans. A fourth ranks figures collected in different years under different definitions, which produces a comparison that carries no information at all.
五、城市排名里的其他指标 / Other Indicators in City Rankings
城市排名一般把留存率与其他几项指标捆绑在一起。高技能就业率反映本地岗位质量，gov.uk 2024 年的数据显示毕业生为 67.9%；薪资中位数要跟房租一起看，HESA 给出的 2023/24 届全职首学位薪资中位数是 30000 英镑，同样一笔钱在伦敦和曼彻斯特能租到的房子差别很大；毕业生净流入衡量吸引与流失的差额；行业结构决定岗位密度，金融与专业服务集中在伦敦，制造与健康服务分散在其他大城市。Centre for Cities 2025 年 9 月的简报还提到一个细节，伦敦是唯一大规模吸走大学衍生公司的城市，伦敦的大学衍生公司中有 40% 由外地高校孵化，大型城市里只有伦敦和格拉斯哥吸引的衍生公司多于流失的。
Rankings bundle retention together with several other measures. High-skilled employment captures local job quality, and gov.uk reported 67.9 per cent for graduates in 2024. Median pay only means something next to rent, since HESA puts median full-time first-degree pay at GBP 30,000 for the 2023/24 cohort while that sum buys very different housing in London and Manchester. Net graduate inflow weighs attraction against loss. Industry mix decides where vacancies sit, with finance and professional services concentrated in London and manufacturing and health spread across larger regional cities. The same September 2025 briefing notes that London is the only city pulling university spin-outs at scale, that 40 per cent of its spin-outs were incubated elsewhere, and that among large cities only London and Glasgow attract more spin-outs than they lose.
六、选校时怎么用这些数字 / Using the Data When Choosing
可行的做法有四步。先看目标大学自己的 Graduate Outcomes 数据，每所英国高校官网都会发布本校毕业生的就业与深造比例，比城市平均值更贴近你的处境；再把房租算进收入，伦敦的工资高，房租也高，可支配收入未必占优；接着查你打算进入的行业在哪些城市真正招人，金融与医疗给出的城市名单完全不同；最后看人口结构，年轻人口持续流入的城市，配套与社交机会通常更稳定。四步做完，再回头看城市排名里的留存率，你就知道它应该在你的决策里占多大权重。
A workable method has four steps. Start with your target universities rather than the city, because every UK university publishes its own Graduate Outcomes figures on its website and those sit closer to your situation than a city average. Weigh rent against pay next, since a London salary and a London rent can leave less disposable income than a smaller city. Then check where your intended industry really hires, as finance and healthcare produce completely different city lists. Finally, examine population trends, because cities with a steady inflow of young workers tend to sustain amenities and social networks. Only then does a retention figure in a city ranking deserve a place in your decision.
举一个便于计算的例子，数字只用于说明方法，不是官方统计。假设某毕业生起薪 32000 英镑，在伦敦月租 1400 英镑，一年房租 16800 英镑，占税前收入约五成；同样的起薪在曼彻斯特月租 800 英镑，一年 9600 英镑，占比约三成。两地的名义工资一样，实际可支配收入的差距来自住房，这也是留存率必须与生活成本一起看的原因。
A short calculation shows why the two figures belong together. Take a graduate on GBP 32,000 paying GBP 1,400 a month in London, which is GBP 16,800 a year, close to half of pre-tax pay. The same salary in Manchester at GBP 800 a month comes to GBP 9,600, around thirty per cent. Those numbers are illustrative rather than official, and they show that identical nominal pay can leave very different disposable income, which is why retention is read alongside living costs.
七、把留存率当成数据分析题练 / Retention Data as Exam Practice
这类统计材料在 IGCSE 与 A-Level 的地理、经济科目里经常出现，剑桥与 AQA 官网的样题都要求考生先判断变量定义再评价数据。练的时候按四件事写：变量怎么定义，样本包含哪些人，口径的时间点，地区划分的层级。留存率与城市经济表现之间只是相关，不能直接写成因果，很多学生以为排名上升就说明大学变好，阅卷时这类句子通常拿不到分。评价段里给出替代解释，例如产业结构、房价、家庭所在地，比堆形容词更容易得分。
Statistics like these appear regularly in IGCSE and A-Level geography and economics, and specimen papers on the Cambridge and AQA websites expect candidates to interrogate definitions before evaluating data. Practise four things: how the variable is defined, who sits in the sample, when the measurement is taken, and which geographic level is used. Retention and city performance move together, which is correlation rather than causation, and answers that jump from a rising rank to a better university usually score poorly. An evaluation paragraph offering alternative explanations, from industry structure to housing costs to family location, earns marks that adjectives never will.
八、三类城市的留存差异 / Three Types of City
把英国城市按留存表现分成三类，比较会更有条理。全国性枢纽只有伦敦，它同时具备高留存与高吸引力，代价是房租与生活成本。区域中心包括曼彻斯特、伯明翰、利兹、格拉斯哥，本地留存比例高，但高端岗位数量比伦敦少，三十岁以后的毕业生容易外迁。大学城包括牛津、剑桥、杜伦，毕业生外流比例偏高，因为本地岗位集中在高校与科研机构。Centre for Cities 官网 2025 年 9 月的简报指出，牛津与剑桥流失的大学衍生公司在英国城市中最多，各自超过 100 家，大型城市里只有伦敦和格拉斯哥吸引的衍生公司多于流失的。三类城市在城市排名里的权重不同，只看一个总名次会丢掉这些区别。
Sorting cities into three groups makes comparison clearer. London stands alone as a national hub that combines high retention with strong attraction, at the cost of rent and living expenses. Regional centres such as Manchester, Birmingham, Leeds and Glasgow keep a large share of their own graduates yet hold fewer senior and specialist roles, so people often drift away after their late twenties. University towns such as Oxford, Cambridge and Durham lose a bigger share of graduates because local vacancies cluster in universities and research institutes. A Centre for Cities briefing from September 2025 notes that Oxford and Cambridge lose more university spin-outs than any other UK cities, over 100 each, and that among large cities only London and Glasgow attract more spin-outs than they lose.
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