16至19岁毕业去向六个月口径 DfE 未记录 | 16 to 19 Destinations: Six-Month Measure, DfE, Not Recorded

2026-10-02 00:03 · 本文部分内容由AI辅助创作

16至19岁毕业去向六个月口径 DfE 未记录

英国教育部每年公布一套 16 至 19 岁学生的毕业去向数据，学校宣传里常引用的百分比就来自这份统计。很多学生以为这类数字是逐个打电话问出来的，真实做法是把几套行政记录按姓名、出生日期和邮编逐个匹配。匹配不上的学生不会被当成零，而是被单独归入未记录或数据缺失两行。要看懂这些百分比，先要弄清谁进入这一届队列、什么算持续、以及哪些活动能被系统看见。这份统计在 2026 年 10 月还会改名，口径本身也在小幅调整。

The Department for Education publishes destination data for 16 to 19 year olds every year, and the percentages quoted in school marketing usually come from that release. Rather than surveying leavers by phone, officials link several administrative records at the individual level, using name, date of birth and postcode. Students who cannot be matched are not treated as zero: they are reported separately as not recorded or as activity not captured in the data.

队列口径谁被算进这一届毕业生

KS4 与 16 至 18 岁（第五学级）是两套彼此独立的统计，不能混着看。16 至 18 岁这一届的收录条件有两条：学生被记入至少两门 A level 规模的资格，或者在年满 18 岁之前没有出现在绩效表里。在 2023 年之前的发布里还有第三条规则，要求学生在同一所学校连续就读两年，这条从 2021 届起被删除。收录规则一改，队列的人员构成就跟着变，跨年份比较会出现台阶。DfE 在 2025 年的发布里把 2016/17 到 2022/23 各届按新规则重算，让整条时间序列可比。KS4 那一套只统计英格兰公立主流学校的离校生。独立学校与特殊学校的数字另有呈现方式，特殊学校因人数偏少而合并公布。

Key stage 4 and 16 to 18 destinations are two separate sets of statistics, and mixing them up is the fastest way to misread a school's results. For the 16 to 18 cohort a student is counted if they were entered for at least two A level sized qualifications, or if they reached 18 without appearing in the performance tables previously; a third rule requiring two years at the same provider was dropped from the 2021 cohort onwards, which changed the makeup of the cohort and created a step in the series. The Department for Education recalculated every cohort from 2016/17 to 2022/23 in the 2025 release so that the whole timeseries is comparable.

什么算持续六个月与两个学期

官方口径里的持续分几个层次，教育去向要求在目的地年的前两个学期持续在学。落到具体月份，就是 2023/24 学年里的 10 月到次年 3 月这六个月。这个窗口选在学年开头之后，避开学生换课或晚入学带来的波动。就业的计算略松，六个月里有至少五个月被记录到就算持续。学徒的规则又不同，只要在目的地年内有连续六个月就算，不限定在 10 月到 3 月。这条差异的原因是学徒的开学时间分散，最晚在次年 2 月入职仍能凑满六个月。很多学生以为只要入读就算去向成立，实际要连续撑满半年才进分子。

Sustained participation in education means being recorded in learning across the first two terms of the destination year, which in the latest release is the six months from October 2023 to March 2024. Employment is treated slightly more generously, since five of those six months are enough. Apprenticeships are measured differently again, because start dates vary across the year, so any six consecutive months of funded apprenticeship activity at any point in the destination year counts, provided the placement begins no later than February.

就业去向的识别每月一天与五个整月

就业去向的识别靠 LEO 数据，也就是纵向教育成果数据集。它与税务与福利记录相连，能看出一个人在某个月是否在工作或接受培训。判定标准很宽，只要当月有过任何工作时长都会被记录，不区分全职与兼职。换过几份工作、中间断过一个月，仍然可能满足持续条件。未就业但领取失业相关福利的人会被排除在就业行之外。这也是就业行的数字容易被低估的地方。常见的错误是把就业行理解成稳定全职就业，它实际包含短期与兼职。部分自雇数据也在其中，2023 年的修订曾调整过这块口径。

Employment destinations come from the Longitudinal Education Outcomes dataset, which links pupil records to tax and benefit information and shows whether someone was in work or training in a given month. The test is deliberately loose: any recorded work in the month counts, regardless of hours, and short gaps do not automatically disqualify a student. Anyone recorded as claiming out-of-work benefits at some point in the destination year is excluded from the employment line, which is one reason the headline employment figure is easy to underestimate.

学徒为什么要单独占一行

学徒在发布里占独立一行，不与教育或就业合并。官方把学徒视为年轻人的主要活动，因为它把带薪工作与资格学习放在一起。持续学徒要求六个月连续参与，且课程必须由政府学徒制经费支持。级别按核心学习目标划分，中级为第二级，高级为第三级，高等含学位级为第四到第七级。如果同一人在多个级别各撑满六个月，报告取最高级别。如果几个级别拼起来才凑满六个月，报告取最近仍在读的级别。这一行的分母与就业行相同，所以比例看起来偏小，但绝对人数并不小。

Apprenticeships get their own line because the Department treats them as a young person's main activity, combining paid work with study towards a qualification. To count, the apprenticeship must be funded and sustained for six consecutive months, and the level reported follows the core learning aim: intermediate at level 2, advanced at level 3, and higher or degree apprenticeships at levels 4 to 7. Where someone sustains more than one level for a full six months the highest level is reported, and where levels are stitched together to reach six months the most recent level is used.

四套行政记录如何拼成一条去向

教育去向并非重新采集，而是把已有行政数据接到国家学生数据库上。四类记录参与其中：覆盖英格兰学院与继续教育机构的 ILR，覆盖学校的学校普查，授予机构提供的独立学校数据，以及覆盖高校的 HESA 记录。匹配在个人层面完成，靠姓名、出生日期与邮编这类字段。公立学校学生的匹配质量最高，个别错配与漏配仍然存在。独立学校的在学情况用考试季节倒推，例如冬季参加考试可推出约三个月在学。替代性教育机构没有起止日期，只能用学年头五个月是否在册作近似。这些技术细节解释了为什么同一名学生在不同机构层面可能落在不同行里。

Education destinations are not collected afresh; they are assembled by linking existing administrative records into the national pupil database. Four sources feed the measure: the Individualised Learner Record for colleges and other further education providers, the school census for schools, awarding body data for independent schools, and Higher Education Statistics Agency records for universities. Matching happens at the individual level using name, date of birth and postcode, which works well for former state school pupils but leaves some genuine matches missed, particularly where a young person has moved into employment.

去向层级学徒优先与合并规则

一个人可能符合几种去向，报告时必须只算一次。官方给出的优先顺序是学徒高于教育与就业。学徒与教育都成立时，报告为教育去向。就业与学徒或教育都成立时，报告为就业去向。全程持续在学的学生只计入教育行，即使在学期间有兼职。不同机构的时段可以拼接，例如先在学校第六学级两个月，再去学院四个月。拼接的时段长度可以不等，但必须完整覆盖那六个月。这条规则让跨机构流动的学生不会被系统漏掉。

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Outcomes overlap in real life, so the release applies a pecking order rather than double counting anyone. An apprenticeship outranks everything else; where apprenticeship and education both apply the student is reported in education, and where employment overlaps with either, employment is reported. Periods spent at different providers can be stitched together, so two months in a school sixth form followed by four months at a college still produces a single education destination, as long as the blocks together cover the full six months.

分类行怎么读从继续教育到特殊学校

持续教育行下面还有十几个分类行，读法要按级别与机构类型分开。继续教育一栏覆盖学院与其他继续教育机构，主要指第三级及以下的学习。高等教育一栏指第四级及以上，数据来自 HESA，也包含继续教育机构开设的高等课程。公立学校第六学级与第六学级学院分成两行，分别来自学校普查与 ILR。特殊学校与专科十六岁后机构合并为专科教育一行。独立学校单列一行，来源是授予机构数据。教育组合一行专门放跨机构拼接的学生，人数不多但能看出流动。这些行加起来等于持续教育总数，不会出现重复计数。

Under the education heading the release breaks destinations down by level and provider type. Further education covers colleges and other providers, mostly at level 3 and below, while higher education covers level 4 and above from Higher Education Statistics Agency records, including higher education taught inside further education colleges. School sixth forms, sixth form colleges, specialist provision, independent schools and the combination line are reported separately, and the parts add up to the total education figure without double counting.

没持续下来的两类学生

没有持续的学生的数据分两行呈现，性质和读法完全不同。第一行是未记录为持续去向，这些学生在源数据里出现过，只是没撑满六个月。其中也包括在目的地年内某个时点领取失业福利的人。第二行是活动未被数据捕获，这些学生在所有源数据里都找不到痕迹。常见原因包括在海外生活、工作或学习，以及在苏格兰或威尔士的学院就读。还有一部分人拿到了国民保险号，但没有留下就业或福利记录。在 2023/24 那届 KS4 学生里，有 2.8% 属于未知去向，这个数字本身也值得看。很多学生以为未记录等于什么都没做，实际它包含短于六个月的真实活动。

Students without a sustained destination are not lumped into one bucket. The not recorded line covers young people who appear in the source data but failed to sustain six months, including those known to be claiming out-of-work benefits at some point in the year. The activity not captured line covers those who cannot be found in any dataset, which usually means they were living, working or studying abroad, attending a Scottish or Welsh college, or simply unmatched in the records.

KS4 与 16 至 18 岁两套口径不能直接比

两套统计的同名指标不能直接对比，因为队列与分母都不一样。KS4 的口径是公立主流学校离校生，在离校后的学年记录去向。16 至 18 岁的口径覆盖公立主流学校与学院，且包含各个资格级别。最新的 KS4 结果是 91.6%，同期的 16 至 18 岁结果是 78.9%。差距的一部分来自队列差异，年纪更大的学生去向更分散。就业与学徒在 16 至 18 岁这届占比更高，教育占比相对低。把 91.6% 与 78.9% 放在一张图里比较，会得出错误的结论。

The two publications look similar and cannot be compared directly, because both the cohort and the denominator differ. Key stage 4 destinations follow pupils leaving state funded mainstream schools, while the 16 to 18 measure covers schools and colleges and includes students at every qualification level. In the latest releases the key stage 4 figure was 91.6% against 78.9% at 16 to 18, and that gap reflects real differences in what older students do rather than a fall in performance.

与 16 至 18 岁参与率统计的差别

DfE 还有另一套 16 至 18 岁参与统计，数字总比去向统计高。两套的差别在口径：参与统计看的是某个时点是否在学或在训。去向统计要求持续六个月，标准更严，分子自然更小。参与统计的参考时点通常在年底前后，反映的是瞬时状态。拿参与统计去核对去向统计的人，容易以为其中一套算错了。官方在方法说明里明确提示两者不可互换，差异来自口径而不是数据质量。看学校宣传时，先确认引用的是哪一套，再决定这个数字有没有参考价值。

The Department publishes a participation measure alongside destinations, and it always reads higher. Participation counts whether a young person was in education or training at a single point near the end of the calendar year, whereas the destination measure demands six months of activity. Holding everything else equal, a stricter test produces a smaller numerator, so a school quoting participation and a table showing destinations are not contradicting each other; the official methodology tells readers plainly that the two should not be swapped.

发布时间表与 2026 年的改名

这套统计从 2012 年第一次发布，最早覆盖 2008/09 学年的学生与次年的去向。在 2016 年 10 月的临时发布之前，它一直以实验性统计的名义公布。现在它每年发布一次，KS4 与 16 至 18 岁两套同在 10 月上线。最近的 KS4 发布在 2025 年 10 月 16 日，覆盖 2022/23 离校与 2023/24 去向。16 至 18 岁那一套的最新一版在 2026 年公布，下一批临时数据定在 2026 年 10 月。从那一版开始，这套发布将改名为 16 至 19 岁去向统计。改名把年龄范围写得更清楚，也与新的参与统计序列对齐。

Destination measures were first published in 2012, covering students in the 2008/09 performance tables and their outcomes a year later, and they carried an experimental statistics label until the provisional release in October 2016. They are now annual, with the key stage 4 and 16 to 18 publications appearing together in October. From the provisional 2024/25 data due in October 2026 the 16 to 18 release will be renamed as 16 to 19 destination measures, which makes the age range explicit.

16至19岁毕业去向 六个月口径 DfE 未记录 | 16 to 19 Destinations: Six-Month Measure, DfE, Not Recorded