📚 The Extent to Which Realism and Liberalism Explain Recent Developments in Global Politics | 现实主义与自由主义对近期全球政治发展的解释程度
In the study of global politics, two grand theories stand out: realism and liberalism. Realism emphasises power, sovereignty, and the anarchic nature of the international system, while liberalism highlights the potential for cooperation, institutions, and interdependence. Recent developments, from the war in Ukraine to climate change negotiations, provide a testing ground for these theories. This essay evaluates the extent to which each explains key events since the early 21st century, weighing their strengths and limitations.
在全球政治研究中，现实主义与自由主义是两大主流理论。现实主义强调权力、主权和国际体系的无政府性，而自由主义则突出合作、制度和相互依赖的潜力。从乌克兰战争到气候变化谈判，近期事态为这些理论提供了检验场。本文评估两者在多大程度上解释了21世纪初以来的关键事件，权衡其优势与局限。
1. Core Assumptions of the Two Theories | 两大理论的核心假设
Realism is founded on the belief that the international system is anarchic, meaning there is no higher authority above states. Consequently, states must rely on self-help to ensure survival, prioritising military power and national interest. Classical realists like Morgenthau argue that human nature drives power-seeking, while structural realists such as Waltz point to the anarchic structure itself.
现实主义基于国际体系无政府的信念，即没有高于国家的权威。因此，国家必须依靠自助以确保生存，优先考虑军事实力和国家利益。摩根索等古典现实主义者认为人性驱使权力追求，而沃尔兹等结构现实主义者则指向无政府结构本身。
Liberalism challenges this bleak view. It maintains that states are not the only significant actors; international organisations, NGOs, and multinational corporations also shape global politics. Moreover, liberal institutionalists like Keohane argue that institutions can reduce transaction costs and build trust, making cooperation rational even in anarchy. The democratic peace theory and economic interdependence further underpin the liberal claim that peace is achievable.
自由主义挑战这种悲观看法。它主张国家并非唯一重要行为体；国际组织、非政府组织和跨国公司同样塑造全球政治。此外，基欧汉等自由制度主义者认为，制度能够降低交易成本、建立信任，使得即使在无政府状态下合作也是理性的。民主和平论与经济相互依赖进一步支撑自由主义的和平可实现主张。
| Realism | Liberalism |
|---|---|
| Anarchy & self-help | Anarchy can be mitigated by institutions |
| States as unitary actors | Multiple actors including NGOs and IGOs |
| Power and security are primary goals | Welfare and cooperation are also important |
| Relative gains matter | Absolute gains can foster cooperation |
In essence, these core assumptions shape how each theory interprets global events. The realism–liberalism debate hinges on whether conflict is inevitable or cooperation is possible.
本质上，这些核心假设决定了每种理论如何解读全球事件。现实主义与自由主义的争论关键在于冲突是不可避免，还是合作是可能的。
2. Realism's Explanation: The Ukraine Conflict | 现实主义的解释：乌克兰冲突
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine is often cited as a textbook case of realism. From a realist perspective, Russia perceived NATO's eastward expansion as an existential security threat, triggering a classic security dilemma. Moscow acted to prevent Ukraine from moving into the Western sphere, seeing it as vital to its strategic depth.
2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰常被引为现实主义的教科书案例。从现实主义角度看，俄罗斯将北约东扩视为生存安全威胁，引发了经典的安全困境。莫斯科采取措施阻止乌克兰进入西方势力范围，视其为战略纵深的关键。
Realists also highlight the role of great-power politics. The United States and its allies imposed sanctions and supplied arms, but avoided direct military confrontation, reflecting the realist logic that states calculate interests and avoid risking escalation to nuclear war. The conflict underscores the enduring primacy of state sovereignty and hard power.
现实主义者还强调大国政治的作用。美国及其盟友实施制裁并提供武器，但避免直接军事对抗，这反映了现实主义的逻辑：国家算计利益，避免冒险升级为核战争。冲突凸显了国家主权和硬实力的持久首要地位。
3. Realism's Explanation: US–China Rivalry and Power Transition | 现实主义的解释：中美竞争与权力转移
Another key development is the intensifying US–China strategic competition. Structural realism, particularly the theory of hegemonic stability and power transition, predicts that as a rising power challenges the established hegemon, conflict becomes likely—often referred to as the 'Thucydides Trap'.
另一关键发展是日益加剧的中美战略竞争。结构现实主义，尤其是霸权稳定论和权力转移理论，预测当崛起大国挑战现有霸权时，冲突很可能发生——常被称为“修昔底德陷阱”。
China's Belt and Road Initiative, military modernisation in the South China Sea, and technological rivalry in 5G and AI can be interpreted as power-maximising behaviour under anarchy. The US response—forming AUKUS, the Quad, and trade decoupling—reflects a balancing strategy familiar to classical realism.
中国的“一带一路”倡议、南海军事现代化以及5G和人工智能等技术竞争，可被解释为无政府状态下的权力最大化行为。美国的回应——组建AUKUS、四方安全对话及贸易脱钩——反映了古典现实主义常见的制衡策略。
4. Limitations of Realism in Explaining Recent Events | 现实主义在解释近期事件中的局限
While realism powerfully accounts for conflict and competition, it struggles to explain sustained periods of peace, institutionalised cooperation, and the role of non-state actors. For instance, why have EU member states pooled sovereignty for decades, and why has NATO persisted after the Cold War? Realism's emphasis on relative gains offers little insight into climate accords or pandemic responses that require absolute gains thinking.
尽管现实主义有力解释了冲突与竞争，但它难以解释持续的和平时期、制度化合作以及非国家行为体的作用。例如，欧盟成员国为什么数十年共享主权，北约为何在冷战后仍然存续？现实主义对相对收益的强调对需要绝对收益思维的气候协定或疫情应对几乎无法提供洞见。
Furthermore, events like the rapid formation of the COVAX facility during COVID-19 show states working through institutions even when national interests appeared to diverge. Realism would predict selfish national stockpiling exclusively; while such behaviour occurred, it was not universal.
此外，如新冠疫情期间COVAX机制的快速形成等事件表明，即使国家利益似乎分歧，国家仍通过制度合作。现实主义会预测完全自私的国家囤积；虽然此类行为确实发生，但并非普遍。
5. The Liberal Lens: International Institutions and Global Governance | 自由主义的视角：国际制度与全球治理
Liberalism offers a compelling framework for understanding the persistence and expansion of international institutions. The United Nations, although imperfect, continues to serve as a forum for dialogue and crisis management. Regional organisations like the African Union and ASEAN have played growing roles in mediating conflicts and fostering integration.
自由主义为理解国际制度的持续与扩展提供了令人信服的框架。联合国虽不完美，但继续充当对话和危机管理的论坛。非洲联盟和东盟等区域组织在调解冲突、促进一体化方面发挥着日益重要的作用。
The Paris Agreement on climate change is a clear example of liberal institutionalism: nearly 200 states voluntarily committed to nationally determined contributions, with a regular review mechanism. Such an outcome cannot be explained by pure realism, which would expect free-riding and minimal compliance.
关于气候变化的《巴黎协定》是自由制度主义的明确例证：近200个国家自愿承诺国家自主贡献，并建立定期审查机制。纯粹现实主义无法解释这一结果，后者会预期搭便车和最低程度的遵守。
6. The Liberal Lens: Economic Interdependence and the Democratic Peace | 自由主义的视角：经济相互依存与民主和平
The post-Cold War globalisation wave seemed to vindicate liberal theories. The EU's single market, NAFTA (now USMCA), and the WTO have bound states in complex webs of trade and investment, raising the costs of conflict. The democratic peace thesis—that democracies rarely fight each other—has been supported by empirical data, although recent democratic backsliding complicates the picture.
冷战后全球化浪潮似乎证明了自由主义理论。欧盟单一市场、NAFTA（现USMCA）和WTO将国家束缚在复杂的贸易投资网络中，提高了冲突成本。民主和平论——民主国家之间很少打仗——得到了经验数据支持，尽管近期的民主倒退使图景复杂化。
Liberalism also explains the relative stability in Europe after World War II. Instead of balancing against each other, Western European states pursued integration, creating supranational institutions to manage interdependence. The Kantian triangle of democracy, international law, and free trade remains a powerful liberal ideal.
自由主义还解释了二战后欧洲的相对稳定。西欧国家非但没有相互制衡，反而追求一体化，创建超国家机构来管理相互依赖。民主、国际法和自由贸易的康德三角仍然是强大的自由主义理想。
7. Limitations of Liberalism: Institutional Weakness and Backlash | 自由主义的局限：制度弱化与反弹
Despite its strengths, liberalism faces serious challenges. The WTO's dispute settlement mechanism has been paralysed by US vetoes, and the WHO came under fire during the COVID-19 pandemic for alleged inefficiency. Nationalism and populism have surged in many democracies, leading to Brexit, the Trump administration's 'America First' policy, and scepticism towards multilateral cooperation.
尽管有其优势，自由主义面临严峻挑战。WTO争端解决机制因美国否决而瘫痪，世卫组织在新冠疫情期间因低效而受到抨击。在许多
Published by TutorHao | A-Level 政治 Revision Series | aleveler.com
更多咨询请联系16621398022（同微信）
或截图后用「扫一扫 → 相册」选择本图