📚 Analysis of the National Voting Behaviour Patterns for the 1979, 1997 and 2010 Elections: A Statistical Approach | 1979、1997、2010年大选投票行为模式的统计分析
Voting behaviour in British general elections has long been shaped by social class, regional loyalties and party identification. By applying statistical tools such as chi‑squared tests, Cramér’s V and regression modelling, we can quantify how strongly these factors influenced voters in the 1979, 1997 and 2010 elections. This article presents a data‑driven comparison of class‑based voting patterns and examines how the association between social class and party choice weakened over time. The analysis uses a set of carefully constructed contingency tables and relevant statistical measures, all grounded in the Edexcel A‑level Mathematics syllabus.
英国大选的投票行为长期受社会阶层、地区忠诚度和政党认同的影响。通过运用卡方检验、克拉默V系数和回归建模等统计工具，我们可以量化分析这些因素在1979年、1997年和2010年大选中对选民的影响程度。本文基于数据驱动的方法，比较了以阶级为基础的投票模式，并考察了社会阶层与政党选择之间的关联如何随时间减弱。分析使用了精心构造的列联表和相关统计指标，全部内容与爱德思A‑level数学大纲紧密衔接。
1. Introduction to Electoral Behaviour and Statistical Modelling | 选举行为与统计建模简介
Understanding how people vote requires more than opinion polls; it demands rigorous testing of relationships between categorical variables. In A‑level Statistics, the chi‑squared test for independence assesses whether two categorical variables—such as social class and party choice—are associated. We apply this method to data from three landmark elections to reveal the evolving strength of class‑voting alignment.
理解人们的投票方式不仅仅依赖民意调查，还需要对分类变量之间的关系进行严格检验。在A‑level统计学中，独立性卡方检验用于判断两个分类变量——例如社会阶层和政党选择——是否存在关联。我们将该方法应用于三次标志性大选的数据，以揭示阶级投票一致性强度的演变。
2. Descriptive Statistics of Vote Shares in 1979, 1997 and 2010 | 1979、1997和2010年选票份额的描述性统计
Before exploring class‑based associations, it is useful to summarise the national vote shares. In 1979 the Conservative Party, led by Margaret Thatcher, secured 43.9% of the vote, Labour 36.9% and the Liberals 13.8%. In 1997 Tony Blair’s Labour won a landslide with 43.2%, while the Conservatives dropped to 30.7% and the Liberal Democrats reached 16.8%. By 2010 no party achieved an overall majority: the Conservatives obtained 36.1%, Labour 29.0% and the Liberal Democrats 23.0%. These shifts reflect both political realignment and changing social structures.
在探究基于阶级的关联之前，先概括全国得票率是很有用的。1979年，由玛格丽特·撒切尔领导的保守党获得43.9%的选票，工党获36.9%，自由党获13.8%。1997年，托尼·布莱尔的工党以43.2%的得票率取得压倒性胜利，保守党跌至30.7%，自由民主党升至16.8%。到了2010年，没有一个政党赢得总体多数：保守党得票36.1%，工党29.0%，自由民主党23.0%。这些变化既反映了政治重组，也反映了社会结构的变迁。
3. Social Class as an Explanatory Variable: Classification and Data | 作为解释变量的社会阶层：分类与数据
We adopt the standard market‑ gher managerial/professional), C1 (supervisory/clerical), C2 (skilled manual) and DE (semi‑ bserved frequencies of voters in each class choosing the three main parties. The data are designed to reflect known historical trends while allowing a consistent comparative analysis.
我们采用标准的市场研究分级：AB（高级管理/专业人员）、C1（主管/文员）、C2（熟练体力劳动者）和DE（半熟练/非熟练体力劳动者及失业者）。对每次大选，我们构建一个4×3列联表，设定总样本容量为 n = 2000，展示每个阶层选择三大政党的观测频数。数据设计力求反映已知的历史趋势，同时保证分析的可比性。
4. Contingency Table and Chi‑Squared Test for the 1979 Election | 1979年大选的列联表与卡方检验
The observed frequencies for 1979 are given in the table below. A strong class gradient is visible: AB voters heavily favoured the Conservatives, while DE voters leaned toward Labour.
1979年的观测频数如下表所示。表中呈现了明显的阶级梯度：AB阶层选民强力支持保守党，而DE阶层选民倾向于工党。
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